The Doom Predictions, Graded
A decade of AI executives warning the world about their own product, checked one by one against what actually happened. Most of it is unfalsifiable marketing. Three predictions were specific enough to test — and the newest grade just came in, from Anthropic's own numbers.
Everything this piece is built on.
- Anthropic CEO warns Congress AI could aid bioweapons within two yearsWASHINGTON POST
- Detecting and countering misuse of AI: September 2026ANTHROPIC
- Elon Musk: AI Is the Biggest Risk We Face as a CivilizationFORTUNE
- Elon Musk gives the world a 10-20% chance of something terrible happening with AIDEADLINE
- OpenAI's Sam Altman To Congress: Regulate Us, Please!FORBES
- Statement on AI RiskCENTER FOR AI SAFETY
- Better Language Models and Their Implications (GPT-2 release announcement)OPENAI
- Anthropic CEO: AI could wipe out half of entry-level white-collar jobsAXIOS
- Machines of Loving GraceDARIO AMODEI